除去夸張的恐懼，中國(guó)的視頻監(jiān)控市場(chǎng)是驚人的。中國(guó)是視頻監(jiān)控設(shè)備最大的消費(fèi)國(guó)，也是視頻監(jiān)控市場(chǎng)增長(zhǎng)最快的國(guó)家。在中國(guó)，部署10萬(wàn)臺(tái)以上的攝像機(jī)的城市級(jí)項(xiàng)目并不少見(jiàn)，這些項(xiàng)目甚至超過(guò)了歐洲或美國(guó)最大的企業(yè)級(jí)項(xiàng)目。那么，印度，以它快速增長(zhǎng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)、龐大的人口和新興的中產(chǎn)階級(jí)，可以跟它的鄰居中國(guó)一樣嗎?

　　印度的視頻監(jiān)控市場(chǎng)目前達(dá)到中國(guó)市場(chǎng)規(guī)模的十分之一 (在2010年估計(jì)為1.65億美元)。其成長(zhǎng)快速，特別是IP類市場(chǎng)，獲得了政府的資金支持。然而，中國(guó)近幾年來(lái)的市場(chǎng)的大部分增長(zhǎng)，得益于該國(guó)政府希望密切關(guān)注它的人口。中國(guó)的以政治或經(jīng)濟(jì)動(dòng)機(jī)推動(dòng)部署大規(guī)模的公共監(jiān)控項(xiàng)目，這對(duì)印度來(lái)講是極不可能的，印度達(dá)不到跟中國(guó)同等的水平，這就降低了印度視頻監(jiān)控市場(chǎng)的增長(zhǎng)潛力。這種使用監(jiān)控技術(shù)政治動(dòng)機(jī)的缺乏是否會(huì)遏制了印度的市場(chǎng)成長(zhǎng)呢，還是說(shuō)印度可以在其他垂直行業(yè)中趕上中國(guó)?

　　零售市場(chǎng)是視頻監(jiān)控可以獲得典型拉動(dòng)力的行業(yè)市場(chǎng)——使用視頻監(jiān)控的投資回報(bào)率(ROL)是可論證的。但是有一個(gè)問(wèn)題。印度零售市場(chǎng)很大程度上對(duì)魏國(guó)公司是封閉的，外商直接投資(FDI)單一品牌零售份額限制在51%以內(nèi)，而且多品牌零售的直接投資限于現(xiàn)金自運(yùn)及批發(fā)業(yè)務(wù)。由于缺少外國(guó)投資，印度的零售面從農(nóng)場(chǎng)到商店都遇到了瓶頸。2010年夏天，印度消費(fèi)者事務(wù)部建議，49%的外國(guó)直接投資可以進(jìn)入到多品牌規(guī)模零售以及后端業(yè)務(wù)，重點(diǎn)如物流。美國(guó)總體奧巴馬最近在孟買訪問(wèn)的時(shí)候釋放出信息，強(qiáng)調(diào)外資需求的重要性以及外資的介入對(duì)印度和美國(guó)公司都有好處。但是，印度政府還沒(méi)有下決定，因獨(dú)立觀察員并不指望2011年前這種情況會(huì)發(fā)生改變。如果外資開(kāi)放能在2011年實(shí)現(xiàn)，我們可以看到零售行業(yè)在視頻監(jiān)控設(shè)備上的支出在中長(zhǎng)期產(chǎn)生“涓流”效果。 

　　視頻監(jiān)控支出典型地跟隨基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施項(xiàng)目中的資本投資，印度也不例外。目前，印度的第十一個(gè)五計(jì)劃(2007-2012)過(guò)了大半。五年計(jì)劃是政府設(shè)計(jì)用來(lái)改善經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會(huì)條件、環(huán)境和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的路線圖。第十個(gè)五年計(jì)劃中，對(duì)于基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的建設(shè)的支出目標(biāo)是占GDP的5%多一點(diǎn)，在十一五計(jì)劃里上升到7.5%。為了保證實(shí)現(xiàn)制造業(yè)、農(nóng)業(yè)和服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展的目標(biāo)，印度認(rèn)為在第十二個(gè)五年計(jì)劃中基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)支出需要達(dá)到GDP的10%。基于這些數(shù)據(jù)，可以清楚的看到，在視頻監(jiān)控中的投資與道路、機(jī)場(chǎng)和鐵路密切相關(guān)。

　　一個(gè)悲哀的現(xiàn)實(shí)——印度的恐怖襲擊——已經(jīng)使得提高安全和防護(hù)成為需要。這與其它深受恐怖襲擊困擾的類似國(guó)家沒(méi)什么不同，印度政府已經(jīng)批準(zhǔn)國(guó)土安全支出，以改善國(guó)家處理危機(jī)時(shí)效率低下的問(wèn)題。雖然很難蘋果有多少運(yùn)算將會(huì)用到視頻監(jiān)控當(dāng)中，但是可以假定，隨著與其他國(guó)家的交流，一些預(yù)算將用于保護(hù)交通樞紐、重要的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施。這將毫無(wú)疑問(wèn)地證明視頻監(jiān)控市場(chǎng)膨脹的好處。

　　值得樂(lè)觀的是，印度有著巨大的視頻監(jiān)控市場(chǎng)潛力。積極的經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)和對(duì)安全持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)的需求是視頻監(jiān)控爆炸性應(yīng)用的必要條件。然而，目前看來(lái)似乎很清楚的是，在未來(lái)一段時(shí)間里，印度還沒(méi)有能力趕超中國(guó)。

【英文】

Will India’s Video Surveillance Boom be as Big as China’s?

Without fear of hyperbole, the Chinese video surveillance market is phenomenal. It’s the largest consumer of video surveillance equipment and one of the fastest growing markets. City-wide deployments of 100,000+ cameras are not uncommon, dwarfing even the largest European or US ‘enterprise’ projects. Can India, with its fast economic growth, huge population, and burgeoning middle-class; mirror its neighbour?[nextpage]

The Indian video surveillance market is currently one-tenth the size of the Chinese market (an estimated $165m in 2010). It is growing quickly, particularly the IP segment, and is receiving government funding. However, much of the growth in recent years in China has been fuelled by its government’s desire to keep a close watch over its population. It’s highly unlikely that India has the political or financial motivation to deploy large scale public surveillance projects to the same degree as China, thereby reducing the potential growth of the video surveillance market. Will this lack of politically motivated use of surveillance technology curb India’s growth, or can it match China in other verticals?

Retail is one market where video surveillance typically gains traction – with its use having a demonstrable ROI. But there is a problem. The Indian retail market is largely closed to foreign firms, with foreign direct investment (FDI) restricted to 51% in single-brand retail and FDI for multi-brand retail limited to cash-and-carry and wholesale operations. Without foreign investment, development of the retail sector from farm to store will be bottle-necked in India. Over the summer in 2010, the Indian Consumer Affairs Ministry recommended that 49% FDI be allowed in multi-brand retail, with an emphasis on back-end operations such as logistics. US President Obama Echoed this message in a recent meeting in Mumbai, stressing the need for foreign investment and the mutual benefits to both Indian and American firms. However, a decision has yet to be taken by the Indian Government and independent observers do not expect the situation to change until 2011. Should FDI be realised in 2011, the trickledown effect could see spending on video surveillance equipment in retail soar in the mid to long-term.　　

A sad reality of the terrorist attacks in India has been the heightened need for security and protection. In a move not dissimilar to other countries that have suffered terrorist attacks, India’s government has approved homeland security spending to improve the country’s effectiveness when dealing with crises. Whilst it is difficult to assess how much budget will be made available for video surveillance, it can be assumed that, as with other nations, some funds will be earmarked for the protection of transportation hubs and critical infrastructure. This will undoubtedly prove a boon for the expanding video surveillance market.

Optimistically, India has huge potential for video surveillance. Positive economic indicators and an increasing need for security are necessary conditions for an explosion in use of video surveillance. However, it seems clear that the Indian tiger won’t slay the Chinese dragon for some time to come.